این مقاله هم جالبه بخونید
The Thirsty Fish - Did Iran Lose its Chance of Catching Up With the West?
این قسمتشو ببینید :
South Korea’s spectacular rise, when compared to other countries, is hard to believe. It was already closer to the OECD in 1975 than Iran. But from this we can see that South Korea is the exceptional case, not the developmental rule. Comparing Iran only to South Korea (something that is done quite often in the Iranian business press) is not very valid if we are being serious. The popular idea that Iran could have “leapt forward” into the club of rich countries (see Iran scholar Abbas Milani’s quote here) needs to be more critically reflected upon.
In sum, Iran’s economic trajectory replicates – though perhaps in more dramatic form - the story of most poorer countries outside of East Asia. Promises of catching up seemed real in the 1950s and 1960s, during what is now called the “golden age” of Keynesian development for the South. Yet all experienced relative declines in the 1970s or 1980s, during what is now called the “lost decades” of Southern development (I’m not even including Sub-Saharan Africa which did even worse). This general decline, since it was so general, cannot be attributed to the internal political or social climate of each and every country. Instead, it had much more to do with the world economic environment of each decade – something that poorer countries usually have little control over. Even the OPEC oil rebellion of the 1970s, a main reason for Iran’s income gains during that decade, ended in the 1980s and the price of oil stayed low for two decades.
و این نتیجه گیری جالبشو که دقیقا بحث ماست :
This calls into the question the overall impact of the 1979 Revolution on Iran’s economy. We could play some interesting counterfactuals to guess what the contours of Iran’s economy would be like if events had been different. But, judging from the relative economic performance of large swaths of the South over the last 40 years, significant and permanent “catching up” with wealthy Western states, as the Shah liked to boast about, would still have been unlikely.
